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PARAGUAY – Review visit at Salitre Cue farm (December 2019).

Situation/weather: Hotter and dryer than normal conditions have been experienced during September to November. The irregular rains have resulted in low water levels on the Paraguay River and its tributaries, which have disrupted barge traffic and water pumping for rice producers. We had to face several restrictions periods of water pumping (either whole or partial) from the river imposed by the authorities.

However, thanks to our artificial lake of 480 ha we could mitigate the problem and continue to irrigate the fields for the rice plants under irrigation (stage sowing). Among all our neighbours, we are the only one having this water reserve as you can see on the aerial view of the area. Depending the level of our river, we could also secure an authorization to pump alternately (10 hours a day).

The rainfall in Paraguay has now increased a bit, but all crops farmers are still concerned about the irregular nature of the rains.

Market: The entire region is currently in crisis rather driven by the economic situation or political (Chile, Colombia, Peru, Argentina, Bolivia as well as Brazil). Brazil currency reached in November his historical lowest level against the US dollar. Knowing that around 90% of the Paraguayan rice production goes to Brazil, very low opening prices have to be expected for this season. Paraguayan producers are also worried about the change in administration in Argentina (exports are barged down the Parana Rive to ports in Argentina). The prior administration of Mrs. Kirchner leveed a tax on crops when they transited through Argentina and farmers are concerned that the tax will be reinstated once again under the new administration.

Production: 1,250 ha are under irrigation and the sowing of 350 ha more has been completed. The intense uniform green colour of the crop shows that water is well distributed, and that the nitrogen applied is being well used by the plants. The 1st plots sowed are now in blooming stage and you can see some aerial application of fertilizer performed in the latest plots sowed.

Rice fields under irrigation

 

 

ARGENTINA – Review visit at Curupi Pora farm (December 2019).

Situation/weather: While drought has ravaged the wheat and barley crop on the Pampas growing belt, we have an optimal situation and weather. Thanks to a wet previous cycle and the current usual hot temperature for this period of the year, pastures have been boosted and are now highly abundant and dense in all section of the farm.

Even Santa Lucia River with his current optimal level allows a direct drinking access to the cattle and expands the grazing area bordering the limit of our farm with the river. The farm is in excellent shape thanks to the permanent hard work of the gauchos and their manager, Ricardo Borda.

Silage and pasture program: We have sowed around 150 ha of corn, which will be use later to feed the herd. Herbicide has just been applied and we are expecting yields around 4.5t/ha.

As part of our program, we are in process of sowing subtropical pastures (Bracchiria) which showed good resilience to heat waves and water shortfalls.

Cattle operation (4,700 heads): The cattle is in excellent shape as you can see for the various categories. We have started the insemination process of the heifers.

Heifers

We are also anticipating some market conditions changed by selling some male calves (180 kg) as well as some fattening cows (460 kg). Across all categories, we are planning to sell around 1,500 heads.

Australian water tank (400,000 liters of capacity)

 

URUGUAY – Conservative Lacalle Pou wins Uruguay presidential election (November 28, 2019).

Center-right candidate Luis Lacalle Pou (a business-friendly conservative) won Uruguay’s presidential election after his rival conceded, bringing an end to 15 years of leftist rule in the country.

Mr Lacalle Pou, a 46-year-old lawyer and a former senator, defeated Daniel Martinez (former mayor of Montevideo) in the runoff election after a recount of votes. The gap between the two candidates who were in the run-up was only 3,090 votes.

He plans to put more police in the streets as public safety has been eroding, but also wants to tackle the country’s high taxes rate and cost of living through austerity measures to reactivate the economy. He will take power on March 1st at the head of a right-wing coalition of 5 parties.

Uruguay should remain a bastion of peace and stability in a turbulent region.

ARGENTINA – Update on San Bartolo farm activities (November 2019).

Situation/weather: After having faced a wet summer as Northeast Argentina has been hit by extensive flooding (please refer to post of January 2019), water is evacuating more slowly than it used to, reducing the available grassing area for the cattle.

Our situation is not unique as our neighbours are facing the same situation. After having performed some investigations, it appears that not only the river has been affected by the flood faced earlier this year, but some illegal internal protection wall built by some farmers upper the river has changed the water course. Local authorities are investigating to identify the origin of the problems and to take measures against. Meanwhile, we are also talking with our neighbours to the local authorities so that they start to perform readjustments in the river and authorize us also to build some internal protections to prevent.

Cattle operation (2,613 heads): Overall the cattle is in decent condition given the situation faced earlier this year (heifers and female calves suffered the most). We are working on the improvement of the heifers since beginning of December; we will start with the insemination process of the heifers. We have currently 363 heifers (2 years old) at the farm. Our objective is to achieve a pregnancy ratio above 80% with 80% of weaned calves. Last year, we registered 76% of pregnancy ratio.

20 young bulls (2 years old) have just been transferred from Curupi Pora farm for genetic purpose. Bull selection can be the most powerful method of genetic improvement in the herd. However, young bulls have not the same fertility power as they are still growing and so far, they have only been fattened (overly fat). Bulls should be gradually stepped down in condition to avoid nutritional disorders and adverse effects on semen production.

 

 

URUGUAY – Presidential election headed to November runoff (October 27, 2019).

Uruguay’s presidential election concluded Sunday night with none of the candidates earning the outright majority needed to win in the first round. Leading candidates Daniel Martínez of the Frente Amplio (leftist coalition that’s governed Uruguay for almost 15 years) and Partido Nacional’s Luis Lacalle Pou will face off in a November 24 run-off.

Mr Martinez (right side of the picture), ex-mayor of Montevideo and former minister, had around 38% with a third of votes counted, well short of the absolute majority needed to win outright. His rival, former senator Lacalle Pou (left) was running second with 30%.

Even if Mr Lacalle Pou has more conservative view, both candidates are focused to reboot the economy and the outlook of this election won’t change the stability of Uruguay’s democracy. Uruguay’s country risk will remain stable, and the country has not become riskier than last week for Investors.

The winner of the November 24 runoff will start his 5 year term on March 1, 2020.

Finally, Uruguayans also elected 99 deputies and 30 senators and voted on a series of referendums on tough on crime measures.

ARGENTINA – Peronist Alberto Fernandez wins presidential election (October 27, 2019).

Alberto Fernandez had 48.1% of the vote, ahead of Macri’s 40.4%, with more than 97% of ballots counted, putting the center-left challenger over the 45% threshold to avoid a runoff and win the election outright.

Fernández’s win signals the return to national power of Peronism, tilting the nation back toward left-wing populism at a time of economic crisis.  But while voters rejected the austerity of Macri’s government, the outcome was also tighter than expected, reflecting wariness about Fernández’s ability to steer the economy through tricky waters.

President-elect Fernández, who assumes office on 10 December, will run into immediate difficulty given the lack of funds to play with: The economy is contracting, inflation is above 50%, and unemployment is more than 10% and 35% of the population lives below the poverty line. Investors also expect the government to default at some point. Macri’s administration racked up debt to cover the bloated deficit he inherited from former president Cristina Kirchner.

He must also satisfy the competing demands of far-left factions in his broad coalition that want more social spending, and the International Monetary Fund, which agreed to a record USD 56 billion bailout last year. The IMF will likely have little appetite to dole out more cash if Fernández implements policies that risk a balanced budget.

His victory, and the uncertainty around it, comes at a fragile moment for Latin America. A wave of violent, anti-austerity protests has rocked Chile and Ecuador; Peru faces major political uncertainty; Venezuela’s economy has collapsed; and the presidential election result in Bolivia has been called into question.

Shortly after the result was announced Sunday, Argentina’s central bank (BCRA) announced it is tightening currency controls. US Dollar purchases will be restricted to USD 200 per month, down from USD 10 000 per month. These measures, which were implemented to preserve the reserves of the central bank, will remain in place until December.

PARAGUAY – Rice emerging at Salitre Cue farm (October 2019).

We have registered some small rains over the two first weeks of October which helped the river to recover a bit and served as well for the development of the seeds in the 1st block sowed end of August (Block G). Meanwhile, as the river is low, we had to adjust optimal irrigation level of the fields already in growing stage by pump water from our reservoir. So, any rainwater helps to refill the reservoir.

The intense uniform green colour of the crop shows that water is well distributed, and that the nitrogen applied is being well used by the plants.

Paddy crop is strongly influenced by water supply and water should be kept standing in the field throughout the growth period. Continuous flooding helps ensure sufficient water (elimination of moisture stress and favourable micro-climate to crop production) with greater availability of nutrients such as phosphorus, iron and manganese and control weeds.

2nd stage surface (430 ha of paddy rice) will start to be irrigated by mid-October. You can see some emerging seeds taking benefit from the natural irrigation supplied by some rainwater.

Last week of October, we are going to sow another block of around 240 ha. (Block E – stage 3). Then, block D and C are going to be sowed at final stage, subject to water availability (level of the river) as all the other fields will require water at the same time but not with the same distribution, and pumping has a cost. So, we should have a 4 stages sowing.

We have also finished to refresh the master house. The roof was particularly affected by the torrential rains registered in May in the country (please see post Mayo 2019).

PARAGUAY – Sowing continues at Salitre Cue farm (October 2019).

After having sowed our 1st stage surface, we are about the restart sowing of stage 2 (430 ha of paddy rice). Land has been prepared and will be sowed during the 1st week-end of October.  Our strategy is to sow in stages to reduce our operating risks (weather issues and irrigation restrictions) while we will have a better control of the plots as they are not going to be all in the same stage at the same moment.

The 1st stage sowing is developing well as you can see (herbicides and nitrogen have been applied) and we are going to start to irrigate those plots in about 7 days.

For now, the river is at a low level and does not permit to pump water. Rains are forecasted and we have also water stored in our reservoir to start irrigation process.

PARAGUAY – Sowing is advancing well at Salitre Cue farm (September 2019).

We are currently in the sowing peak and so far, 540 ha have been sowed in very good conditions. We are going to restart to sow by end of September as our objective is to sow in 3 stages the full surface we allocate to paddy rice production this season. This way we can have a harvest in stage and reduce our operating risks (weather issues and irrigation restrictions) while we will have a better control of the plots as they are not going to be all in the same stage at the same moment.

Below you can see the treatment of seeds with insecticides and fungicides applied before being sowed.

For the 1st plots already sowed, herbicides and nitrogen are going to be applied soon. Nitrogen is the most important nutrient for rice productivity as it encourages the vegetative growth of paddy. the seeds are already emerging as you can see.

ARGENTINA – Argentina imposes currency controls (September 1st, 2019).

On September 1st, Argentina’s government has imposed capital controls to stop a slump in foreign currency reserves and the peso that has pushed the country to the brink of default.

The announcement comes as Argentina’s currency crisis spirals out of control. About $3 billion drained out of foreign currency reserves between 29 and 30 august alone as the government struggled to repay short-term debt and slow the drop in the peso. 

The financial crisis has also been exacerbated by Macri’s defeat in a recent primary poll. The peso collapsed more than 25% last month after primary election results showed the market-friendly government of Macri has little chance of retaining power in October’s polls. President Macri has given up trying to restore investors’ confidence and has instead resorted to the policies he had criticized his predecessors for imposing.

Briefly, the central bank will now requires exporters to repatriate within 5 days earnings from sales abroad, while all companies, not just banks, must seek authorisation to sell pesos for foreign currency. Individual Argentines will be limited to dollar purchases of no more than $10,000 a month. These measures, which will be effective until December 31, 2019, were designed by the Argentine Government as a temporary emergency solution to prevent the dollarization of certain cash flows.

For now, these measures are not affecting directly our business in Argentina as we are not an export company and sale locally in peso our beef production. However, we believe this is an initial step of a return to heavy state intervention.