Already in the minority in the lower house Chamber of Deputies, Fernández’s Frente de Todos coalition looks set to drop from 41 to 35 seats in the 72-member Senate, based on projections with more than 98% of votes counted in the midterm elections held on 14/11/21.

According to a breakdown published by La Nación newspaper, the opposition Juntos por el Cambio coalition took 41.97% of the national vote (all votes cast), with the ruling Peronist coalition on 33.57%. The opposition, which will now gain ground in both chambers of Congress, scored key victories in Buenos Aires City and the provinces of Buenos Aires, Córdoba, Mendoza and Santa Fe, regions that carry a lot of electoral weight. Juntos por el Cambio also emerged victorious in the provinces of Jujuy, La Pampa, Chubut, Corrientes, Entre Ríos, Misiones, San Luis and Santa Cruz.

Mr Fernández will now likely be forced to make concessions to the opposition during the last two years of his mandate in order to pass laws or make key appointments. Even if the more investor-friendly opposition gained power, the country will face economic turbulences in the coming months. Among others, Argentina is in a tricky renegotiation with the I.M.F. over the repayment of a US 44 billion debt. If no new repayment schedule is found, Argentina will have to repay US19 billion in 2022 and as much again in 2023. Let’s see some light despite all the darkness… Mrs Kirchner will no longer have a bloc in the Senate that guarantees she can pull the strings at her own pace.

Situation/weather: The farm is currently in very good shape as we continue to register some good rains at the farm which allows the densification of the pastures. Those rains will also help to boost the development of the new pastures freshly sowed in September. We sowed 120 ha with Setaria pastures for grazing and for cut fodder.

This year, we have subleased to a contractor 150 ha where corn and soybean will be planted, and we will be paid in kind as we need corn to feed our heard. You can see below the good development of the corn which has been sowed.

Cattle operation: Our cattle herd (over 5,200 heads currently) is performing well and has a great uniformity as you can see. Below, you have some calves waiting for vaccination.

Here, you can see some young bulls.

Situation/weather: After having faced dry and warm weather, we registered some good dense rains of 45 mm. Timely intense thunderstorms appear to be partially but violently offsetting below-average rainfall in the north of the country. The level of Santa Lucia River which is bordering the farm went up and as we maintain the riverside completely clean the cattle can go to the river, drink water and come back to the plots.

Silage and pasture program: Pastures have improved their density and as part of our strategy, we are in the process to sow around 120 ha with new pastures (setaria). Setaria is a permanent pasture for grazing and for cut fodder (ie comfort of handling by virtue of the soft foliage and absence of foliar bristles). You can see below the land preparation performed for the coming sowing of this pasture.

Cattle operation: Our cattle herd (over 4,900 heads currently) is in very good shape as you can see for the various categories, thanks to the efforts of our farm team.

Here, you can see some cows and heifers with their babies.

Here, you can see some heifer calves.

Here, you can see some heifers of 2-years which are going to be in service in November.

We are also in the process to delivery 23 bulls and 25 cows.

This will complete our cattle sales for the month as we have anticipated them due to the export restrictions set up again by the Argentine authorities. Due to those restrictions, beef prices have declined by 1.4%. This measure is blocking a great export opportunities for the country as “mad cow” cases have been identified in Brazil which triggered the immediate temporary suspension of beef exports to China and Hong Kong (Article from El Cronista, dated 13/09/21).

Argentina’s government suffers heavy defeat in PASO primaries which took place on 12/09/21. The ruling Peronist coalition (Frente de Todos) lost heavily in the key province of Buenos Aires Province, the movement’s traditional heartland, while recording notable losses in Buenos Aires City (together, they make up almost 40% of Argentina’s population) as well as in other major provinces like Córdoba, Santa Fe, Corrientes and Mendoza, piling pressure on President Alberto Fernández and his government. Unexpected, and unwelcome, defeats then came in Chaco, Jujuy, Santa Cruz, La Pampa and Chubut. Frente de Todos also fell in Entre Ríos, Misiones, Salta, Tierra del Fuego and San Luis. In Neuquén and Río Negro, the ruling coalition lost to local parties.

The primary election serves as early test on the political strength of President Alberto Fernández’s ruling coalition. Voters will pick candidates to lead their parties or coalitions ahead of the final midterm vote on November 14, when 50% of the lower house seats in Congress and a 1/3 of the Senate are up for election. If the same results were to be repeated in November, Frente de Todos would lose six senators and its majority in the upper house. In the lower house, its bloc would drop from 120 to 111, versus 118 for Juntos por el Cambio. It could also provide some early signals into the 2023 presidential race.

Despite an array of parties running in the primaries, Argentines are largely split between Fernandez’s populist coalition, Frente de Todos, and the more investor-friendly opposition, Juntos por el Cambio. Fernandez’s government never gained credibility in the eye of foreign investors after a series of anti-business decisions including defaulting on its dollar debt and tightening capital controls.

Investors and markets will cheer on Frente de Todos heavy defeats: Argentine stocks traded on Wall Street soared prior to the opening of the market on September 13 and the country risk fell. But in the short term, an open question remains whether this election loss is going force Mr Fernandez to be more pragmatic, or instead double down on unorthodox measures to rile up his base. To be continued …

On 31/08/21, the Argentine government has extended beef export restrictions until the end of October. Exports will remain limited to half the 2020 average.

Fernández administration said that those restrictions are an attempt to moderate skyrocketing domestic prices as according to authorities, increases in the price of meat helped boost inflation to 51.8% year-on-year in July.

Argentina is the 4^th largest exporter of beef in the world with some 897,500 tons of beef and cow leather worth USD 2.7 billion in 2020, and one of its biggest consumers per capita. But poverty affects 42% of the population, and the government is trying to reduce the cost of living by implementing price controls. In May, President Fernández’s government slapped a one-month suspension on foreign meat sales. In June, it announced a progressive resumption of exports but limited to 50 percent of last year’s average monthly volumes until the end of August.

Producers reacted angrily to the news:  “ideology overcomes rationality, impoverishing everyone” said by Mr Pino, leader of the La Sociedad Rural. The business chamber claimed in a recent report that meat producers had lost out on trade worth more than USD 1.084 billion since ban on exports were imposed. In reaction, a strike to stop beef supply will probably occur after primary election on next September 12.

As beef producer (7,500 heads of cattle), we don t see positively this news and we will try to complete our remaining planned cattle delivery before the strike.

Currently, we have all the elements of an explosive cocktail combined in Corrientes which could potentially affect our farms, mainly our forest: Lack of rains, heat waves and wind. The level of the river Santa Lucia which is bordering our farms is very low. Rain is rare but high temperatures are frequent currently.

The region of Corrientes has been classified in extreme vigilance by the authorities for forest or brush fires.

In addition to the deep cleaning operation we have performed after last year fires in Tata Cua forest, internal roads have been extended and all sections bordering roads have been cleaned to prevent from a new fire.

We also uproot palm trees near our tree plantation because in case of fire, they play a role of combustion gas pedal.

In Curupi Pora farm, our cattle herd (over 4,900 heads) are for now in very good shape even if the grassing area have reduced due to the ongoing weather conditions.

Our big natural lagoon where cattle come to drink and to refresh looks currently empty. We made also reserves in silage as a scorching summer is forecasted like in 2008.

As part of our fiscal year end closing procedures, we are currently performing to the inventory of our trees. The process is starting late this year as we are facing logistic delays due to the pandemic.

A forest expert is taking measures such as the height and width of the trunks to calculate the volume of wood in the forest. This information serves to define whether or not the forest is ready for harvest but also to follow the good growth of the trees and identify which plots have to be cut.

In our case, its essential as we faced last year in August a fire (see previous post related). Trees which have been affected by fire have to be cut as their development is compromised and they take space of others that are healthy or regrowing.

Approximately 43 ha of pine trees have being sold to wood products manufacturers over the year (cuts are still in progress).

Operation: As part of our fiscal year end closing procedures, we are currently performing the physical account of our herd.

The process is more complex and lengthened because of the sanitary restrictions. Under normal conditions, the process is already heavy in terms on logistic (above 5,300 heads at the farm to pool and count) but with the worsening sanitary conditions in the northern province of Argentina and protocols to be applied, its becoming epic.

The cherry on the cake, we have also to face frosts as you can see (the climate of the region is classified as subtropical climate).

Even is this challenging environment, the quality reached of our breed (good hold, colour and uniformity of the calves) makes us proud and motivates the entire team of Curupi Pora.

We have also terminated to refresh our corral facilities. The upgraded chute will allow us to have a better service for delivery or sanitary duties.

Market news: Argentina has now returned to the global beef export trade after its earlier self-imposed 30-day suspension – but only under significant limitations, some of which are likely to last until the end of the year. Argentinean beef exporters are now permitted to export 50 % of volume recorded in 2020, measured on a monthly basis, but a complete suspension will remain on certain items. This means that around 250,000 tonnes of beef would be removed from the global beef market. The biggest loser out of this will be China as Chinese were getting around 40,000 tonnes a month in shipments, this year that will be reduced to about 20,000 tonnes.

Situation/weather: After having registered some good rainfalls in March (247 mm) which have redensified the pastures and recharged our natural lagoon as well as the rainwater tanks, we have again entered in a dry period since April (rainfall: -42% in April and -75% in May compared with the historical average for the same period). According to the latest weather forecasts, a mild dry winter is anticipated…and we are just coming out from a drought season.

Cattle operation: We have currently above 5,300 heads at the farm, all in very good shape knowing that we are coming from an intense drought period.

Insemination process of the 2,258 cows in service (natural & artificial) took place mid-May, and the fertility tests will be performed by the end of June 2021. You can see below some 2 years old heifers performing their 1^st service in 2021.

We are also in the process of upgrading and refreshing the corral facilities to have a better service for delivery or sanitary duties. You can see the refreshing work performed for the entry of the cattle into the chute.

Sales: We are in the process of selling 375 calves of around 150 kg at the same market conditions then before the introduction of export restrictions. We could get this great opportunity thanks to the quality of our breed (good hold, colour and uniformity of the calves).