Alberto Fernandez had 48.1% of the vote, ahead of Macri’s 40.4%, with more than 97% of ballots counted, putting the center-left challenger over the 45% threshold to avoid a runoff and win the election outright.

Fernández’s win signals the return to national power of Peronism, tilting the nation back toward left-wing populism at a time of economic crisis.  But while voters rejected the austerity of Macri’s government, the outcome was also tighter than expected, reflecting wariness about Fernández’s ability to steer the economy through tricky waters.

President-elect Fernández, who assumes office on 10 December, will run into immediate difficulty given the lack of funds to play with: The economy is contracting, inflation is above 50%, and unemployment is more than 10% and 35% of the population lives below the poverty line. Investors also expect the government to default at some point. Macri’s administration racked up debt to cover the bloated deficit he inherited from former president Cristina Kirchner.

He must also satisfy the competing demands of far-left factions in his broad coalition that want more social spending, and the International Monetary Fund, which agreed to a record USD 56 billion bailout last year. The IMF will likely have little appetite to dole out more cash if Fernández implements policies that risk a balanced budget.

His victory, and the uncertainty around it, comes at a fragile moment for Latin America. A wave of violent, anti-austerity protests has rocked Chile and Ecuador; Peru faces major political uncertainty; Venezuela’s economy has collapsed; and the presidential election result in Bolivia has been called into question.

Shortly after the result was announced Sunday, Argentina’s central bank (BCRA) announced it is tightening currency controls. US Dollar purchases will be restricted to USD 200 per month, down from USD 10 000 per month. These measures, which were implemented to preserve the reserves of the central bank, will remain in place until December.